The index

Eight questions the reading is built from.

Superintelligence, as si-infra defines it, needs compute, power, a network that makes many sites act as one machine, capability on clean tests, long unsupervised work, outside verification, closed financing, and rules that allow it. Every analysis moves one of these. Some have moved; some are still waiting for evidence.

Net movement by component

Compared

The sum of every move each component has taken since March 11, 2026. Components with zero moves on the record are left off the chart.

The data7 rows · sources

Unit: net points
Item	Value	Source
Compute 4 moves	1
Energy 2 moves	-0.4
Capability 10 moves	2.9
Autonomy 4 moves	1.7
Verification 4 moves	-2.9
Capital 1 move	0.3
Governance 7 moves	-0.8

Component	Weight	Moves	Net	Last move
Compute Is frontier training and inference compute being built, energized and used at the scale the definition requires?	0.20	4	+1.0	SpaceX, Oct. 4, 2026
Energy Is the power to run it contracted, interconnected and generating?	0.15	2	−0.4	Brookfield, Sept. 30, 2026
Fabric Do the networks and interconnects let compute act as one machine across sites?	0.10
Capability Do public systems clear the definition's capability thresholds on tests that stay uncontaminated?	0.20	10	+2.9	Google DeepMind, Sept. 30, 2026
Autonomy Do systems run long, unsupervised, economically useful work with measured reliability?	0.15	4	+1.7	METR, Sept. 30, 2026
Verification Can an outsider check what ran, on what, with what result?	0.10	4	−2.9	UK AI Security Institute, Sept. 28, 2026
Capital Is committed, closed financing paying for the above, or only announced?	0.05	1	+0.3	Anthropic, Sept. 28, 2026
Governance Do the rules and institutions allow deployment at the scale the definition requires?	0.05	7	−0.8	OpenAI, Oct. 1, 2026

Weights size a move inside its evidence band; they are set in method.json and explained on the method page.