# TSMC Reports NT$511.9 Billion for September and Tops Its Own Quarterly Guidance by 2 Percent

> TSMC filed September revenue of NT$511.86 billion on Oct. 8, which lifts third-quarter sales to NT$1.494 trillion; compute moves up 0.5 while CEO C.C. Wei defends a concentrated customer list.

- Published: 2026-10-08
- Author: Ryan Elliott Dennis
- Company: TSMC
- Canonical: https://si-infra.com/journal/tsmc-september-revenue-q3-record
- Ledger move: +0.5 Compute (confirmed). Reading after Oct. 8, 2026: 3.2% of the way to superintelligence on the public record.

TSMC filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Oct. 8, 2026, reporting September revenue of NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6 percent from September 2025 and down 0.6 percent from August [1][2]. July, August and September add up to NT$1,494.243 billion for the third quarter, a record that sits about 2 percent above the top of the range TSMC guided in July [3][4]. Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei told investors in July that the company's packaging capacity "is so tight that now it’s limiting my customers’ growth" [5].

## What did TSMC file on Oct. 8?

The filing is a monthly revenue report signed by Wendell Huang, TSMC's senior vice president and chief financial officer [2]. It lists September at NT$511,857 million, August at NT$514,806 million, and January through September at NT$3,898,727 million, up 41.1 percent from NT$2,762,964 million a year earlier.

Two features of the monthly series matter. September slipped 0.6 percent from August, so the larger of the two latest months was August [1][2]. Subtracting August and September from the quarter's NT$1,494.243 billion leaves about NT$467.6 billion for July, which means the two later months ran roughly 10 percent above the first [3]. A quarter that grows from a base of NT$467.6 billion to a plateau above NT$510 billion shows demand holding at the new level rather than spiking.

Why does a foundry's revenue belong on a ledger of superintelligence? TSMC fabricates and packages the accelerators that fill the gigawatt campuses the ledger tracks. Energized megawatts feed an idle building until accelerators arrive, and accelerators arrive through this company's billing. The monthly report is therefore the most frequent audited number on how much silicon moved.

## How far above guidance did the quarter land?

On July 16, TSMC guided third-quarter revenue to "between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion" at an exchange rate of 32 Taiwan dollars to one U.S. dollar [5]. That converts to NT$1,427.2 billion to NT$1,465.6 billion [3]. The actual NT$1,494.243 billion lands about 1.95 percent above the top of that range, up 50.9 percent from a year earlier and 17.6 percent from the second quarter[4].

The same call raised the 2026 capital budget. Huang said, "we have decided to raise our full year 2026 capital budget to be between $60 billion and $64 billion," up from a range of $52 billion to $56 billion [3][5]. Wei added a forward line. "The CapEx in the next three years will be even more significantly higher than the past three years," he said. Read together, the statements describe a company spending against demand it can already see in its order book, with the September filing supplying the first evidence that the third quarter delivered.

Mix is the second piece of evidence behind the revenue. In the second quarter, high performance computing supplied 66 percent of TSMC's revenue and grew 20 percent from the first quarter, while smartphones supplied 22 percent and shrank 4 percent [3]. Three-nanometer and five-nanometer wafers made up 30 percent and 33 percent of wafer revenue, and the new two-nanometer node already supplied 3 percent. The center of gravity of the company has moved toward data center silicon.

## Why does packaging capacity set the pace?

Wafers are half the story. Chips for AI accelerators need advanced packaging, the step that joins logic dies and stacks of high bandwidth memory into one module. Wei named it on the July call. "Well, let me say that our packaging capacity is so tight that now it’s limiting my customers’ growth," he said [5]. The verb "limiting" and the possessive "my customers’" place the constraint on TSMC's own floor and the cost on others' P&Ls.

That statement makes the monthly revenue a supply figure more than a demand figure. If packaging caps shipments, revenue tracks what TSMC can build, and the NT$511.86 billion for September reads as capacity running full. A full line earns a step on the compute component, because the question there is how much frontier compute exists.

Analysts at the start of the year described the same wall. Bruce Lu of Goldman Sachs put growth in AI wafer capacity at "like 15% a year," and Handel Jones of International Business Strategies projected that wafer demand at five nanometers and below would run 25 to 30 percent above capacity in 2026 [6]. Revenue growth of 54.6 percent in September, against a capacity that grows far slower, implies that price and mix carry a large part of the gain.

## Should anyone worry that a few customers carry the growth?

Two voices give the case in their own words. Wei argues from the order book. Gokul Hariharan, a managing director at JPMorgan Chase, argues from the financial market.

On the second-quarter call, Jim Fontanelli of RTTNews asked about customer concentration. "I think your exposure to your top five customers is becoming meaningfully larger than at any point in your history," Fontanelli said [5]. Wei answered with a refusal and then a reason. "No, that’s not our concern," he said, and continued, "Besides, what you say, the customers are growing bigger and bigger, we are very happy about it". The reply treats concentration as a symptom of customer success. It leaves open what happens to TSMC's revenue if one of five buyers cuts an order.

Hariharan voiced the worry on the investor side in January. "There is definitely a lot of concern in the financial market, especially about whether we are in a bit of a bubble," he told EE Times [6]. The same article reports that Wei shared those concerns. "I'm also very nervous about it," Wei said. Since then, TSMC has raised its capex range by $8 billion at both ends, and its quarterly revenue has cleared its own guidance [3][5]. The nervous CEO of January spent more and sold more.

Each side needs something specific to be true. Wei's case holds if third-quarter orders translate into deployed accelerators and the buyers pay for them from operating cash flow. Hariharan's case holds if revenue growth outruns the ability of five customers to turn chips into earnings.

## Why does the step stop at 0.5?

The method sizes confirmed evidence between 0.8 and 1.5 points, and it allows a piece to step below its band when it states the reason. TSMC's 6-K is a filing, so the revenue figures are confirmed. What the figures measure is a dollar total, and the ledger's compute component asks whether frontier compute is built, energized and used at scale.

Four limits hold the step to half a point. First, revenue blends volume, price and product mix, so the filing says little about how many wafers shipped [3]. Second, high performance computing covers more than AI accelerators. Third, most of the 51 percent growth was already in the July guidance, which leaves the surprise at about 2 percent. Fourth, the two-nanometer ramp is expected to dilute gross margin by "about 3-4 percentage points," in Huang's words, so some of the revenue buys capacity that earns less per wafer for now[5].

Compute carried a reading of 1.2 before this piece and carries a weight of 0.20 in the total. The step adds 0.5 to compute and takes the day's reading from 3.7 to 4.2. TSMC's own quarterly report on Oct. 15 will show gross margin, wafer shipments by node and the AI accelerator share, the figures that can lift or lower the step [4].

## By the numbers

- September 2026 revenue reached NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6 percent from a year earlier [1][2].
- January through September revenue totals NT$3,898.73 billion, up 41.1 percent [1][2].
- Third-quarter revenue of NT$1,494.243 billion rose 50.9 percent in a year and 17.6 percent from the second quarter [3][4].
- On July 16, TSMC guided third-quarter revenue to US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion, which converts to NT$1,427.2 billion to NT$1,465.6 billion [3][5].
- Capital spending for 2026 now runs $60 billion to $64 billion, up from $52 billion to $56 billion [3][5].
- High performance computing supplied 66 percent of second-quarter revenue, up 20 percent from the first quarter [3].
- Huang expects the two-nanometer ramp to dilute gross margin by 3 to 4 percentage points [3][5].

## What to watch

Watch TSMC's third-quarter earnings call on Oct. 15 for gross margin against the 65 to 67 percent guide, and for any figure on packaging capacity added since July [3][4]. A margin inside the range with revenue above it would confirm that volume, and more than price, drove the beat. Packaging that stays tight into 2027, in Wei's words, would lift the next step, and a cut to the capex range, or an order reduction from any top-five customer, would pull the reading back down. Fourth-quarter guidance, due on that call, shows whether September's plateau above NT$510 billion becomes the floor.

## Sources

1. TSMC, "TSMC September 2026 Revenue Report," TSMC Newsroom, Oct. 8, 2026, https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3343
2. Wendell Huang, "Form 6-K: TSMC Monthly Revenue Report, September 2026," U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Oct. 8, 2026, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000680/tsm-revenue20261008.htm
3. Y Kobayashi, "TSMC's July-September Revenue Jumps About 51% to a Record, but 2nm Ramp Puts Margins in Focus," XenoSpectrum, Oct. 8, 2026, https://xenospectrum.com/en/tsmc-q3-2026-revenue-2nm-margin/
4. Keoni Everington, "TSMC posts record September revenue as Q3 sales hit new high," Taiwan News, Oct. 8, 2026, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6454456
5. Investing.com, "Earnings call transcript: TSMC lifts 2026 outlook as AI demand stays hot in Q2 2026," Investing.com, July 16, 2026, https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-tsmc-lifts-2026-outlook-as-ai-demand-stays-hot-in-q2-2026-93CH-4794777
6. Alan Patterson, "TSMC Will Struggle to Meet AI Demand for Years, Analysts Say," EE Times, Jan. 16, 2026, https://www.eetimes.com/tsmc-will-struggle-to-meet-ai-demand-for-years-analysts-say/

## Images

- ![A large white TSMC fab building with rooftop equipment beside a wide road under a blue sky](https://si-infra.com/img/tsmc-september-revenue-q3-record/1.jpg) TSMC's Fab 18 in the Southern Taiwan Science Park in Tainan, photographed in May 2025. The site makes the company's three- and five-nanometer wafers. (Photo: 4300streetcar, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:TSMC_Fab_18_May_2025.jpg)
- ![TSMC's glass-fronted headquarters towers in Hsinchu lit at dusk, with light trails from passing traffic](https://si-infra.com/img/tsmc-september-revenue-q3-record/2.jpg) TSMC's global headquarters, the Fab 12A building in Hsinchu Science Park, at dusk in September 2015. Its Oct. 8 filing reported NT$511.86 billion for September. (Photo: 曾 成訓, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:TSMC_Fab_12A_01.jpg)
- ![The red steel frame of TSMC's Fab 22 under construction behind a parking lot, with green hills beyond](https://si-infra.com/img/tsmc-september-revenue-q3-record/3.jpg) TSMC's Fab 22 under construction in Nanzih District, Kaohsiung, in April 2024. The site is built for two-nanometer chips, the node that supplied 3 percent of second-quarter wafer revenue. (Photo: Thingreenline4546, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:TSMC_fab_22_under_construction_Kaohsiung,_Nanzih_District,_Taiwan_Apr_13,_2024_05-44-42_PM.jpeg)
- ![A tall grey TSMC packaging plant with the red TSMC logo rising behind trees and a grassy slope](https://si-infra.com/img/tsmc-september-revenue-q3-record/4.jpg) A building of TSMC's advanced packaging plant 2 in the Southern Taiwan Science Park, May 2025. Packaging joins logic dies and memory stacks into one accelerator module. (Photo: 4300streetcar, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:TSMC_AP2_building_May_2025.jpg)
- ![C.C. Wei, white-haired and in glasses, smiles while holding up a small book at a table](https://si-infra.com/img/tsmc-september-revenue-q3-record/5.jpg) TSMC Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei at the Prime Minister's Office in Tokyo on Feb. 5, 2026. In July he called customer concentration "not our concern." (Photo: Cabinet Secretariat, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:20260205hyoukei03.jpg)

## Sources

1. TSMC September 2026 Revenue Report (TSMC Newsroom, 2026-10-08) https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3343
2. Form 6-K: TSMC Monthly Revenue Report, September 2026 (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 2026-10-08) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000680/tsm-revenue20261008.htm
3. TSMC's July-September Revenue Jumps About 51% to a Record, but 2nm Ramp Puts Margins in Focus (XenoSpectrum, 2026-10-08) https://xenospectrum.com/en/tsmc-q3-2026-revenue-2nm-margin/
4. TSMC posts record September revenue as Q3 sales hit new high (Taiwan News, 2026-10-08) https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6454456
5. Earnings call transcript: TSMC lifts 2026 outlook as AI demand stays hot in Q2 2026 (Investing.com, 2026-07-16) https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-tsmc-lifts-2026-outlook-as-ai-demand-stays-hot-in-q2-2026-93CH-4794777
6. TSMC Will Struggle to Meet AI Demand for Years, Analysts Say (EE Times, 2026-01-16) https://www.eetimes.com/tsmc-will-struggle-to-meet-ai-demand-for-years-analysts-say/

Method: https://si-infra.com/method · Ledger: https://si-infra.com/ledger · Founding paper: https://si-infra.com/whitepaper